Kufanotaura kwenguva refu kwemusika wendege
Iyo Airbus bvunzo uye nzvimbo yekuunganidza paToulouse-Blagnac Airport muFrance. Airbus Photos
Vagadziri vendege dzekutaurirana vakaburitsa zvinyorwa zvinotevera zvenguva refu yekufanotaura kwemusika wekufamba nendege. Maererano nekufungidzira kwavo, mumakumi maviri emakore anotevera, 2018-2037, kutakura kuchawedzera ne2,5 nguva, uye ndege dzichatenga: maererano neBoing - 42,7 zviuru zvendege ($ 6,35 trillion), uye maererano neAirbus - 37,4 zviuru. Embraer inofungidzira kudiwa kwendege dzenharaunda dzine simba rinosvika zvigaro zve100 pa150 zviuru. mayunitsi, uye MFR ye turboprops ne 10,5 zviuru.Vaongorori veBoeing vanofanotaura kuti mumakumi maviri emakore nhamba yendege ichawedzera kubva pazvino 3,02 24,4. anosvika zviuru zvisere nesere, uye huwandu hwemusika wekufambisa kwemhepo huchave 48,5 madhora madhora.
Pakati pegore, vagadziri vendege dzekufambiswa kwemashoko vakaburitsa nguva dzose kuburitswa kwekufanotaura kwenguva refu kwemusika wekufambisa kwemhepo. Chidzidzo cheBoeing chinodaidzwa kuti Current Market Outlook - CMO (Current Market Outlook) uye Airbus Global Market Forecast - GMF (World Market Forecast). Mukuongorora kwayo, mugadziri weEuropean anobata nendege ine huwandu hwezvigaro zve100, nepo mugadziri weAmerica anobata nendege dzedunhu dzine zvigaro makumi mapfumbamwe. Kune rimwe divi, kufanotaura kwakagadzirirwa neBombardier, Embraer uye ATR kunotarisa kune jets dzedunhu, inova nyaya yekufarira kwavo kugadzira.
Mukufanotaura kwakasiyana, vaongorori vemusika vanofungidzira: huwandu hwekufambisa kwemhepo uye kuvandudzwa kwezvikepe nematunhu epasi uye mamiriro emari ekushanda kwemusika wekufambisa kwemhepo mumakore makumi maviri anotevera 2018-2037. Kugadzirira kwezvino kuburitswa kwekufanotaura kwakatangirwa nekuongorora kwakadzama kwetraffic pamigwagwa yakabatikana uye kushanduka kwehuwandu hwakaitwa kune zvikepe, izvo zvinoshandiswa nevatakuri vakuru, pamwe chete nemari yekushandisa yezvikamu zvegwara rega rega. musika wekufamba nendege. Kufanotaura kunoshandiswa kwete chete nevanotungamira ndege uye vagadziri vendege yekutaurirana, asiwo nemabhanga, vaongorori vemusika wendege uye manejimendi ehurumende ane hanya.
Kufanotaura kwekufamba kwemhepo
Vaongorori vemusika wendege, vakagadzirira kuburitswa kwazvino kwekufanotaura kwenguva refu, zvakabva paavhareji yekukura kwehupfumi hwepagore yeGDP yepasi (gross domestic product) ichava 2,8%. Nyika dzenharaunda: nharaunda yeAsia-Pacific - 3,9%, Middle East - 3,5%, Africa - 3,3% uye South America - 3,0% ichanyora yepamusoro-soro yekukura kwehuwandu hwehupfumi hwavo, uye pasi pevhareji yenyika: Europe - 1,7, 2%, North America - 2% uye Russia neCentral Asia - 4,7%. Kuvandudzwa kwehupfumi kuchapa avhareji yekuwedzera kwepagore kwevatyairi traffic pamwero weXNUMX%. Kukura kwezvifambiso, kupfuura hupfumi, kuchave kwakanyanya mhedzisiro ye: kusunungurwa kwemusika uye kuwedzera kunofambira mberi kwenetiweki yekutaurirana, mitengo yakaderera yematikiti, pamwe nemhedzisiro yakanaka yekusimudzira kutengeserana kwenyika uye kushanya kwenyika. Kekutanga mumakore akawanda, tiri kuona kukura kwehupfumi munzvimbo dzese dzepasi kuchigadzira kukurudzira kwakawanda kwekufamba nendege pasi rose. "Tinoona maitiro akasimba ekukura kwete chete mumisika ichiri kusimukira muChina neIndia, asiwo mumisika yakakura muEurope neNorth America," akadaro Boeing Mutevedzeri weMutungamiriri weKushambadzira Randy Tinseth mune chirevo chekufanotaura.
Mutyairi mukuru wekuvandudzwa kwekufamba nendege kuchava kukura kwevanhu uye kuwedzera zvishoma nezvishoma kweboka repakati (kureva vanhu vanowana kubva pamadhora gumi kusvika kumadhora zana pazuva, mari iyi inogadziriswa nokuda kwesimba rekutenga remari yega yega). Vaongorori veAirbus vakaverenga kuti mukati memakumi maviri emakore huwandu hwevanhu vepasi rose huchawedzera ne10% (kubva pa100 kusvika 16 bhiriyoni), uye vepakati nepakati ne7,75% (kubva pa9,01 kusvika 69 bhiriyoni). Iyo yakakura, yakapetwa kaviri kuwedzera kwehuwandu hwevanhu vepakati ichanyorwa muAsia (kubva pa2,98 kusvika 5,05 bhiriyoni vanhu), uye iyo huru dynamics ichava muAfrica (kubva pa1,41 kusvika 2,81 miriyoni). Mumisika mikuru yeEurope neNorth America, chiyero chakataridzirwa chepakati chepakati hachizoshanduki zvakanyanya uye chicharamba chiri pamwero we220-530 mamiriyoni (Europe) uye 450 mamiriyoni (North America), maererano. Zvinofanira kucherechedzwa kuti kirasi yepakati parizvino inoita 480% yehuwandu hwenyika, uye mumakore makumi maviri mugove wayo uchawedzera kusvika 260%. Simba rinokurudzira kusimudzira kwekufamba nendege kuchava kufambira mberi kwemaguta uye kukura kwehupfumi mumisika ichiri kusimukira ine mukana mukuru (kusanganisira: India, China, South America, Central Europe neRussia). Nehuwandu hwevanhu vanosvika mabhiriyoni 38 mumatunhu aya, kufamba nendege kuchakura nechikamu che56% pagore, uye huwandu hwevanhu vanoda kufamba nendege huchapeta katatu. Mumakore mashoma anotevera, musika wekuChina wekubhururuka nendege uchave mukuru pasi rose. Kune rumwe rutivi, mumisika yakasimukira (kusanganisira North America, Western Europe, Japan, Singapore, South Korea neAustralia) ine vanhu vanopfuura bhiriyoni, traffic ichakura pamwero we6,7%. Iko kudiwa kwekufambisa nendege kunotungamira mukusimudzirwa kwenhandare dzendege, kusanganisira nzvimbo dzekufambisa dziri padyo nenzvimbo dzemadhorobha (dzinoburitsa vanopfuura zviuru gumi nemazana maviri nemazana matatu nemakumi matatu evafambi zuva nezuva munzira dzekufamba kwenguva). Muna 5,7, zvikamu zviviri kubva muzvitatu zvehuwandu hwepasi rose zvichagara mumaguta, uye huwandu hwema megacities huchawedzera kubva kune yazvino 3,1 kusvika 10 (muna 2037) uye 64 (muna 210).
Matunhu ari kusimukira ane simba achave: South America, Asia-Pacific dunhu uye Middle East, iyo ichakura paavhareji yegore negore ye5-5,5%, uye Africa - 6%. Mumisika miviri mikuru yeEurope neNorth America, kukura kunenge kuri pakati nepakati pa3,1% uye 3,8%, zvichiteerana. Sezvo misika iyi ichakura zvishoma nezvishoma pane avhareji yepasi rose (4,7%), mugove wavo mumigwagwa yepasi rose uchaderera zvishoma nezvishoma. Muna 1990, chikamu chakabatanidzwa chemusika weAmerica neEurope waiva 72%, muna 2010 - 55%, makore gumi nemashanu apfuura - 49%, mumakore makumi maviri chikamu ichi chichaderera kusvika 37%. Nekudaro, izvi hazvisi mhedzisiro yekuzara kwepamusoro chete kumira.
Kuchinja kwegore negore kwekufambisa kwemhepo muzvikamu zvishomanana kuchatungamirira kune chokwadi chokuti mumakore makumi maviri nhamba yevatakuri ichakura kubva kune yazvino 20 kusvika ku4,1 bhiriyoni, uye kutakura kubereka kubva ku10 trillion pkm (pass.-km) kusvika kune 7,6 trillion pkm. . Boeing inofungidzira kuti muna 19 nzvimbo dzine vanhu vakawanda zvikuru dzichava nzira dzomumusha muChina (2037 trillion pkm), North America (2,4 trillion pkm), Europe neSoutheast Asia, pamwe nekubatanidza kubva kuEurope kuenda kuNorth America (2,0 trillion pkm). ) uye kuMiddle East. Mugove wemusika weAsia munyika ikozvino 0,9%, uye mumakumi maviri emakore ichasvika 33%. Kune rumwe rutivi, misika yeEurope ichadonha kubva ku40% kusvika ku25%, uye North America misika kubva ku21% kusvika ku21%. Misika yeSouth America icharamba isina kuchinjwa nechikamu che16%, Russia neCentral Asia - 5% uye Africa - 4%.
