Kupera kwemamiriro ekunze sezvatinozviziva. Matanho mashoma akakwana...

Mamiriro ekunze ari pasi pano akachinja kakawanda. Kudziya kupfuura zvakuri iko zvino, kudziya zvakanyanya, kwave kuri kweakawanda enhoroondo yayo. Kutonhodza uye kunyura kwakave zvikamu zvenguva pfupi. Saka chii chinoita kuti titore tembiricha yazvino spike sechinhu chakakosha? Mhinduro ndeyokuti: nokuti tinoidana, isu, homo sapiens, nekuvapo kwedu uye basa.

Mamiriro ekunze akachinja munhoroondo yose. Kunyanya nekuda kwesimba rayo remukati uye pesvedzero yezvinhu zvekunze zvakaita sekuputika kwemakomo kana shanduko muchiedza chezuva.

Humbowo hwesainzi hunoratidza kuti kushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze kwakanaka uye kwave kuitika kwemamiriyoni emakore. Semuenzaniso, mabhiriyoni emakore apfuura, mukati memakore ekuumba ehupenyu, avhareji tembiricha panyika yedu yakanga yakakwirira kwazvo kupfuura nhasi - hapana chakakosha payaive 60-70 ° C (yeuka kuti mhepo yaive neimwe nzira panguva iyoyo). Kune yakawanda yenhoroondo yePasi, pamusoro payo pakanga pasina aizi zvachose - kunyangwe pamatanda. Nguva payakaonekwa, ichienzaniswa nemabhiriyoni anoverengeka emakore ekuvapo kwepasi redu, inogona kutonzi ipfupi. Paivawo nenguva apo chando chaifukidza nzvimbo huru dzepasi - idzi ndidzo dzatinoti nguva. ice age. Vakauya kakawanda, uye kutonhora kwekupedzisira kunobva pakutanga kweQuaternary period (anenge mamiriyoni maviri emakore). Nguva dzechando dzakabatanidzwa dzakaitika mukati memiganhu yayo. nguva dzekudziya. Uku ndiko kudziya kwatinako nhasi, uye nguva yekupedzisira yechando yakapera makore 10 XNUMX. makore mazhinji apfuura.

Zviuru zviviri zvemakore zveavhareji tembiricha yePasi penyika maererano nekuvakwazve kwakasiyana

Industrial Revolution = shanduko yemamiriro ekunze

Zvisinei, mumazana maviri emakore adarika, kuchinja kwemamiriro okunze kwakafambira mberi nokukurumidza zvikuru kupfuura nakare kose. Kubva pakutanga kwezana ramakore re0,75, tembiricha yepasirese yakawedzera neinenge 1,5 ° C, uye pakati pezana ramakore rino inogona kuwedzera neimwe 2-XNUMX ° C.

Kufanotaura kwekudziya kwepasi uchishandisa mhando dzakasiyana

Nhau ndeyokuti ikozvino, kekutanga munhoroondo, mamiriro ekunze ari kuchinja. zvinokonzerwa nemabasa evanhu. Izvi zvave kuitika kubva pakatanga shanduko yemaindasitiri pakati pemakore ekuma1800. Kusvikira munenge mugore ra280, kuwanda kwecarbon dioxide mumhepo yakapoteredza pasi kwakaramba kusingachinji uye kwakasvika zvikamu 1750 pamiriyoni. Kushandiswa kukuru kwemafuta efossil akadai semarasha, oiri uye gasi kwakonzera kuwedzera kwekubuda kwegreenhouse gasi mumhepo. Semuenzaniso, kuwanda kwecarbon dioxide mumhepo kwakawedzera ne31% kubva 151 (methane concentration ne50%!). Kubva pakupera kwemaXNUMX (nekuti kurongeka uye nekunyatso tarisisa yeCO zviri mumhepo₂) kuwanda kwegasi iri mumhepo kwakasvetuka kubva pazvikamu 315 pamiriyoni (ppm yemhepo) kusvika pazvikamu 398 pamiriyoni muna 2013. Nekuwedzera kwekutsva kwemafuta emafuta, kuwedzera kweCO concentration kuri kukurumidza.₂ mumhepo. Parizvino iri kuwedzera nezvikamu zviviri pamiriyoni imwe neimwe gore negore. Kana nhamba iyi ikaramba isina kuchinjwa, ne2040 tichasvika 450 ppm.

Zvisinei, izvi zviitiko hazvina kutsamwisa iyo greenhouse effect, nokuti zita iri rinovanza zvachose chisikigo muitiro, izvo zvinosanganisira kuchengetwa nemagasi egreenhouse aripo mumhepo yechikamu chesimba rakambosvika paNyika muchimiro chemwaranzi yezuva. Nekudaro, iyo yakawanda greenhouse magasi mumhepo, iyo yakawanda yesimba iri (kupisa kunovhenekerwa nePasi) rinogona kubata. Mhedzisiro ndeyekukwira kwepasi rose kwekushisa, ndiko kuti, kufarirwa kudziya kwepasirese.

Carbon dioxide emissions ne "budiriro" ichiri diki kana ichienzaniswa nekubuda kubva kune zvakasikwa masosi, nyanza kana zvidyarwa. Vanhu vanoburitsa 5% chete yegasi iri mumhepo. 10 bhiriyoni matani kana ichienzaniswa ne90 bhiriyoni matani kubva mumakungwa, 60 bhiriyoni matani kubva muvhu uye chiyero chakafanana kubva kuzvirimwa hachina zvakawanda. Nekudaro, nekuburitsa nekupisa mafuta ezvicherwa, tiri kukurumidza kuunza kabhoni cycle iyo zvisikwa zvinobvisa kubva mairi kupfuura makumi kusvika kumazana emamiriyoni emakore. Kuwedzera kwegore negore kwehuwandu hwe carbon dioxide mumhepo ne 2 ppm inomiririra kuwedzera kwehuwandu hwemhepo yemhepo yemhepo ne 4,25 bhiriyoni matani. Saka hazvisi izvo kuti tiri kubudisa zvakawanda kupfuura zvakasikwa, asi kuti tiri kukanganisa kuenzana kwezvisikwa uye kukanda zvakanyanya kudarika kweCO mumhepo gore negore.₂.

Miti inonakidzwa nekuwanda uku kwemuchadenga kabhoni dhaikisaidhi kusvika parizvino nekuti photosynthesis ine chimwe chinhu chokudya. Zvisinei, kuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze, kurambidzwa kwemvura uye kutemwa kwemasango zvinoreva kuti hapazovi ne“munhu” achatora carbon dioxide yakawanda. Kuwedzera kwekushisa kuchawedzerawo maitiro ekuora uye kusunungurwa kwekabhoni kuburikidza nevhu, zvichiita kuti kunyunguduka permafrost uye kuburitswa kwezvinhu zvakavharirwa organic.

Vanodziya, varombo

Nekudziya, kune kuwedzera uye kuwedzera kusanzwisisika kwemamiriro ekunze. Kana shanduko dzikasamira, masayendisiti anofanotaura kuti mamiriro ekunze akanyanya - mafungu ekupisa, mafungu ekupisa, kurekodha kunaya kwemvura, pamwe nekusanaya kwemvura, mafashamo nemafashama - zvichawedzera.

Kunyanya kuratidzwa kwekuchinja kunoramba kuripo kune simba rakasimba pahupenyu hwevanhu, mhuka nemiti. Zvinokanganisawo hutano hwevanhu. Nekuda kwekudziya kwemamiriro ekunze, i.e. huwandu hwehosha dzinopisa dziri kuwedzerazvakadai semarariya uye dengue fever. Mhedzisiro yekuchinja iyi iri kunzwikwawo muhupfumi. Zvinoenderana neInternational Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), kukwira kwe2,5 degrees kuchaita kuti ive yepasi rose. kuderera kweGDP (Gross domestic product) ne 1,5-2%.

Nechekare apo avhareji tembiricha yakwira nechidimbu chedhigirii reCelsius, tiri kuona zvinhu zvinoverengeka zvisati zvamboitika: kupisa kwerekodhi, mazaya echando ari kunyunguduka, madutu ari kuwedzera, kuparadzwa kweArctic ice cap neAntarctic ice, kukwira kwemvura yegungwa, kunyunguduka kwepermafrost. , madutu. madutu, gwenga, kusanaya kwemvura, moto nemafashamo. Maererano nenyanzvi, avhareji yekushisa kwePasi pakupera kwezana remakore kukwira ne 3-4 ° С, uye minda - mukati 4-7 ° C uye uku hakuzove magumo ehurongwa zvachose. Anenge makore gumi apfuura, masayendisiti akafanotaura kuti pakupera kwezana ramakore rechi XNUMX mamiriro ekunze achachinja makiromita 200-400. Zvichakadaro, izvi zvakatoitika mumakore makumi maviri apfuura, ndiko kuti, makumi emakore apfuura.

 Ice kurasikirwa muArctic - 1984 vs. 2012 kuenzanisa

Kuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze kunorevawo shanduko muhurongwa hwekumanikidza uye mafambiro emhepo. Mwaka wekunaya kwemvura uchachinja uye nzvimbo dzekunaya kwemvura dzichachinja. Mugumisiro uchava kushanduka magwenga. Pakati pevamwe, kumaodzanyemba kweEurope neU.SA, South Africa, Amazon basin neAustralia. Maererano neshumo ye2007 IPCC, pakati pe2080 ne1,1 bhiriyoni vanhu vacharamba vasina kuwana mvura muna 3,2. Panguva imwe cheteyo, vanhu vanopfuura mamiriyoni 600 vachanzwa nzara.

Mvura pamusoro

Alaska, New Zealand, Himalayas, Andes, Alps - mazaya echando ari kunyungudika kwese kwese. Nekuda kwemaitiro aya muHimalayas, China icharasikirwa nezvikamu zviviri kubva muzvitatu zvehukuru hwemazaya echando pakati pezana ramakore. MuSwitzerland, mamwe mabhanga haachadi kukweretesa kune nzvimbo dzekutandarira dziri pasi pe 1500 m pamusoro pegungwa.MuAndes, kunyangarika kwenzizi dzinoyerera kubva kune glaciers kunotungamirira kwete kumatambudziko ekupa mvura kune zvekurima uye vagari veguta, asi. zvakare nekudzima magetsi. MuMontana, muGlacier National Park, makanga mune mazaya echando 1850 muna 150, nhasi asara 27. Zvinofanotaurwa kuti panosvika 2030 pachange pasisina.

Kana chando cheGreenland chikanyunguduka, mwero wegungwa uchakwira ne7m uye ice rose reAntarctic richakwira nemamita 70. Mvura yegungwa pasi rose inofungidzirwa kuti ichakwira ne1-1,5m pakupera kwezana rino remakore, uye gare gare, zvishoma nezvishoma. imwe inosvika XNUMX m kwemakumi akati wandei emamita. Zvichakadaro, mazana emamiriyoni evanhu anogara munzvimbo dziri mumhenderekedzo yegungwa.

Musha uri pachitsuwa cheChoiseul

Vagari vomumusha Choiseul Island Muzvitsuwa zveSolomon Islands, vakatosiya misha yavo nekuda kwenjodzi yemafashamo inokonzerwa nekukwira kwemvura muPacific Ocean. Vatsvakurudzi vakavayambira kuti nekuda kwenjodzi yemadutu makuru, tsunami uye mafambiro ekudengenyeka, dzimba dzavo dzinogona kunyangarika kubva pachiso chePasi chero nguva. Nokuda kwechikonzero chakafanana, kune chirongwa chekugadzirisazve vagari veHan Island muPapua New Guinea, uye vanhu vePacific archipelago yeKiribati vachakurumidza kufanana.

Vamwe vanopokana kuti kudziya kunogonawo kuunza mabhenefiti - muchimiro chekusimudzira kwekurima kwenzvimbo dzinenge dzisina vanhu dzekuchamhembe kweCanada neSiberian taiga. Zvisinei, maonero agara aripo ndeokuti pasi rose izvi zvichaunza kurasikirwa kwakawanda pane kubatsirwa. Kukwira kwemvura kwaizokonzera hukuru hukuru hwekutamira kumatunhu akakwirira, mvura yaizofashama maindasitiri nemaguta - mutengo wekuchinja kwakadaro unogona kuuraya hupfumi hwenyika nebudiriro yese.