Kudzikamisa kwedu kudiki

Zuva rinogara richibuda kumabvazuva, mwaka unoshanduka nguva dzose, kune mazuva 365 kana 366 pagore, chando chiri kutonhora, chirimo chinodziya… Zvinofinha. Asi ngatinakidzwe nekufinhwa uku! Kutanga, hazvizogari nokusingaperi. Chechipiri, kudzikamisa kwedu kudiki inyaya yakakosha uye yechinguvana mune chaotic solar system yakazara.

Kufamba kwemapuraneti, mwedzi uye zvimwe zvinhu zvese zviri muchadenga zvinoita kunge zvakarongeka uye zvinofanotaurwa. Asi kana zvirizvo, unotsanangura sei macrater ese atinoona paMwedzi uye mazhinji emitumbi yemudenga muhurongwa hwedu? Kune akawanda kwazvo paPasi zvakare, asi sezvo isu tine mhepo, uye nekukukurwa kwayo, zvinomera uye mvura, isu hationi pasi gobvu zvakajeka semune dzimwe nzvimbo.

Kana iyo solar system yaive neakanaka mapoinzi anoshanda chete pamisimboti yeNewtonian, saka, tichiziva nzvimbo chaiyo uye mafambiro eZuva nemapuraneti ese, taigona kuona kwaanogara chero nguva mune ramangwana. Sezvineiwo, chokwadi chinosiyana neutsanana hwaNewton.

shavishavi remuchadenga

Kufambira mberi kukuru kwesayenzi yezvakasikwa kwakatanga chaizvo nekuedza kutsanangura mitumbi yemuchadenga. Izvo zvakawanikwa zvakawanikwa zvinotsanangura mitemo yekufamba kwepuraneti zvakaitwa ne "madzibaba ekutanga" emazuva ano nyeredzi, masvomhu uye fizikisi - Copernicus, Galileo, Kepler i Newton. Zvisinei, kunyange zvazvo mechanics emitumbi miviri yekudenga inopindirana pasi pesimba regiravhiti inonyanyozivikanwa, kuwedzerwa kwechinhu chechitatu (icho chinonzi dambudziko remiviri mitatu) kunoomesa dambudziko kusvika patinenge tisingakwanisi kurigadzirisa nekuongorora.

Tinogona here kufanotaura mafambiro ePasi, toti, bhiriyoni iri mberi? Kana, nemamwe mazwi: iyo solar system yakagadzikana here? Masayendisiti akaedza kupindura mubvunzo uyu kwezvizvarwa. Maresults ekutanga avakawana Peter Simon kubva Laplace i Joseph Louis Lagrange, pasina mubvunzo yakapa mhinduro yakanaka.

Pakupera kwezana ramakore rechiXNUMX, kugadzirisa dambudziko rekugadzikana kwesolar system raive rimwe rematambudziko makuru esainzi. mambo weSweden Oscar II, akatogadzira mubairo chaiwo kune anopedza dambudziko iri. Yakawanikwa muna 1887 neFrench mathematician Henri Poincaré. Nekudaro, humbowo hwake hwekuti nzira dzekuvhiringidza dzinogona kusatungamira pakugadzirisa kwakaringana hahuonekwe sehunogumira.

Akasika nheyo dzedzidziso yemasvomhu yekugadzikana kwekufamba. Alexander M. Lapunovuyo ainetseka kuti kukurumidza sei kureba pakati pematanho maviri epedyo muhurongwa hwemhirizhonga hunowedzera nekufamba kwenguva. Apo muhafu yechipiri yezana remakore rechimakumi maviri. Edward Lorenz, nyanzvi yezvemamiriro ekunze paMassachusetts Institute of Technology, yakagadzira chimiro chakareruka chekuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze kunotsamira pazvinhu gumi nezviviri chete, yakanga isingabatanidzi zvakananga nekufamba kwemitumbi muzuva. Mubepa rake ra1963, Edward Lorenz akaratidza kuti shanduko diki mune data rekuisa inokonzera maitiro akasiyana zvachose ehurongwa. Ichi chivakwa, chakazozivikanwa se "butterfly effect", chakazove chakajairwa neakawanda masisitimu ane simba anoshandiswa kuenzanisa zviitiko zvakasiyana mufizikisi, chemistry kana biology.

Kunobva bongozozo mumasisitimu anochinja-chinja masimba ehurongwa hwakafanana anoshanda pamiviri inotevedzana. Iyo yakawanda miviri muhurongwa, iyo inowedzera mhirizhonga. MuSolar System, nekuda kwekusaenzana kukuru muhuwandu hwezvikamu zvese zvichienzaniswa neZuva, kudyidzana kwezvikamu izvi nenyeredzi kwakasimba, saka dhigirii remhirizhonga rinoratidzwa muLyapunov exponents harifanirwe kunge rakakura. Asi zvakare, maererano nekuverenga kwaLorentz, isu hatifanirwe kushamiswa nekufunga kwechaotic chimiro chesolar system. Kwaizova kunoshamisa kudai gadziriro ine nhamba huru yakadaro yorusununguko yakava yenguva dzose.

Makumi gumi apfuura Jacques Lascar kubva kuParis Observatory, akaita zvinopfuura chiuru zviedzo zvemakombiyuta zvekufamba kwepuraneti. Mune imwe neimwe yadzo, mamiriro ekutanga akasiyana zvisingakoshi. Modelling inoratidza kuti hapana chakakomba chichaitika kwatiri mumakore makumi mana anotevera, asi gare gare mu40-1% yezviitiko zvinogona kupera kwakakwana kwesolar system. Isu tine makore makumi mana emamiriyoni emakore atiinawo chete kana mumwe muenzi asingatarisirwi, chinhu kana chinhu chitsva chisina kuverengerwa panguva ino chisaoneka.

Kuverenga kunoratidza, semuenzaniso, kuti mukati me5 bhiriyoni makore kutenderera kweMercury (nyika yekutanga kubva kuZuva) ichachinja, kunyanya nekuda kwesimba reJupiter. Izvi zvinogona kukonzera Nyika iri kudhumhana neMars kana Mercury chaizvo. Kana isu tichipinda imwe yedatasets, imwe neimwe ine 1,3 bhiriyoni makore. Mercury inogona kuwira muZuva. Mune imwe simulation, zvakazoitika kuti mushure memamiriyoni 820 emakore Mars ichadzingwa kubva muhurongwa, uye pashure pemakore mamiriyoni 40 achauya kudhumhana kweMercury neVenus.

Ongororo yemasimba eSystem yedu naLascar nechikwata chake akafungidzira nguva yeLapunov (kureva, nguva iyo nzira yechirongwa chakapihwa inogona kufanotaurwa nemazvo) yeSitimu yese pamakore 5 miriyoni.

Zvinoitika kuti kukanganisa kwe 1 km chete pakuona nzvimbo yekutanga yepasi kunogona kuwedzera kune 1 yenyeredzi unit mumakore 95 miriyoni. Kunyangwe dai takaziva iyo yekutanga data yeSitimu ine yakakwira zvekupokana, asi ine magumo echokwadi, hatingakwanise kufanotaura maitiro ayo chero nguva. Kuti tiratidze ramangwana reSitimu, iyo ine bongozozo, isu tinofanirwa kuziva data rekutanga nekurongeka kusingagumi, izvo zvisingagoneke.

Uyezve, hatizivi zvechokwadi. simba rose rezuva. Asi kunyangwe tichifunga nezvese zvinokonzeresa, zvinosanganisira relativistic uye zviyero zvakaringana, isu hatingashandure mhirizhonga yesolar system uye hatingakwanise kufanotaura maitiro ayo uye nyika chero nguva.

Zvose zvinogona kuitika

Saka, solar system yakangovhiringika, ndizvo chete. Chirevo ichi chinoreva kuti hatigone kufanotaura mafambiro ePasi kupfuura, toti, 100 miriyoni emakore. Nekune rumwe rutivi, solar system pasina mubvunzo inoramba yakagadzikana sechimiro panguva ino, sezvo kutsauka kudiki kweiyo parameter inoratidza nzira dzemapuraneti kunotungamira kune akasiyana orbits, asi ine zvinhu zviri pedyo. Saka hazvigoneke kuti ichadonha mumabhiriyoni anotevera emakore.

Ehe, panogona kunge kwatotaurwa zvinhu zvitsva izvo zvisina kuverengerwa mukuverenga pamusoro apa. Semuenzaniso, hurongwa uhu hunotora makore 250 miriyoni kupedzisa kutenderera kwepakati peGwara renzou. Kutama uku kune mhedzisiro. Kuchinja kwenzvimbo kunokanganisa kuenzanisa pakati peZuva nezvimwe zvinhu. Izvi, zvechokwadi, hazvigoni kufanotaurwa, asi zvinoitika kuti kusaenzana kwakadaro kunokonzera kuwedzera kwekuita. comet chiitiko. Zvinhu izvi zvinobhururuka zvakananga kuzuva kakawanda kudarika nguva dzose. Izvi zvinowedzera njodzi yekudhumhana kwavo neNyika.

Nyeredzi mushure memamiriyoni mana emakore Gliese 710 ichave 1,1 light years kubva kuZuva, zvichigona kukanganisa kutenderera kwezvinhu mukati The Oort Cloud uye kuwedzera mukana wekometi kudhumhana neimwe yemapuraneti emukati mezuva.

Masayendisiti anovimba nedata renhoroondo uye, achitora mhedziso kubva kwavari, anofanotaura kuti, pamwe muhafu yemiriyoni yemakore. meteor ichirova pasi 1 km muhupamhi, zvichikonzera njodzi ye cosmic. Zvakare, mukuona kwemamiriyoni zana emakore, meteorite inotarisirwa kudonha muhukuru hunofananidzwa neiyo yakakonzera kutsakatika kweCretaceous makore 100 miriyoni apfuura.

Kusvikira ku500-600 miriyoni emakore, iwe unofanirwa kumirira kwenguva yakareba sezvinobvira (zvakare, zvichibva pane iripo data uye manhamba) kupenya Kana supernova hyperenergy kuputika. Pachinhambwe chakadaro, mwaranzi inogona kukanganisa ozone layer yePasi uye kukonzera kuparara kwakawanda kwakafanana nekutsakatika kweOrdovician - kana chete fungidziro pamusoro peizvi ichokwadi. Nekudaro, mwaranzi inoburitswa inofanirwa kunanga paPasi chaipo kuti ikwanise kukonzeresa chero kukanganisa pano.

Saka ngatifarei mudzokororo uye kudzikamiswa kudiki kwenyika yatinoona uye yatinogara mairi. Masvomhu, nhamba uye zvingangomuita kuti arambe akabatikana mukufamba kwenguva. Sezvineiwo, rwendo rurefu urwu harusati tasvika.