Hakungavi nebasa remurume here? Robo Faber nguva

Maererano neongororo yakaitwa naDaren Acemoglu weMassachusetts Institute of Technology and Pascual Restrepo wekuBoston University, yakaburitswa muna Kubvumbi gore rino, robhoti rega rega riri muindasitiri rinoparadza mabasa matatu kusvika matanhatu mariri. Avo vaive pasi pekunyepa kuti pamwe neautomation iyi kutora kwemabasa kuwedzeredza, vanorasikirwa nenjere dzavo.

Vatsvagiri vakadzidza kuti maindasitiri otomatiki akakanganisa sei musika wevashandi weUS muna 1990-2007. Vakagumisa kuti robhoti rimwe nerimwe rakawedzerwa rakaderedza basa munzvimbo iyi ne 0,25-0,5% uye rakaderedza mihoro ne XNUMX-XNUMX%.

Panguva imwecheteyo Chidzidzo chaDaren Handeyi nazvoGlu naPascual Restrepo kupa humbowo hwekuti robotization inoshanda uye inodhura-inoshanda. Maererano neInternational Federation of Robotics, marobhoti 1,5 miriyoni kusvika 1,75 miriyoni ari kushandiswa pari zvino, uye dzimwe nyanzvi dzinofunga kuti nhamba iyoyo ichawedzera zvakapetwa kaviri kana kutowedzera panosvika 2025.

Mukutanga kwa2017, The Economist yakashuma kuti panosvika 2034, 47% yemabasa inenge yave otomatiki. “Hapana hurumende munyika yakagadzirira izvi,” vatori venhau vanonyevera kudaro, vachifanotaura tsunami yechokwadi yokuchinja kwevanhu kuchavapo.

Nekudaro, iyo kambani yekubvunza PricewaterhouseCooper, mukufanotaura kwayo kumusika weBritish, inotaura nezve tarisiro yekurasikirwa ne30% yemabasa mumakore gumi nemashanu anotevera, inosvika 80% munzvimbo dzekutonga. Job inopa webhusaiti Gumtree inoti mukudzidza kwayo ingangoita hafu yemabasa (40%) mumusika wemazuva ano wemabasa achatsiviwa nemichina mumakore makumi mana anotevera.

Basa repfungwa rinopera

Dr Carl Frey veYunivhesiti yeOxford, mubepa repamusoro-soro makore akati wandei apfuura nezveramangwana rebasa, vakafungidzira kuti 47% yemabasa yaizosangana nenjodzi huru yekunyangarika nekuda kwemabasa otomatiki. Musayendisiti akashoropodzwa nokuda kwokuwedzeredza, asi haana kuchinja pfungwa dzake. Parizvino, kuwanda kwedata uye kutsvagisa kunoratidzika kunge kunotsigira kwete chete kuti iye akarurama, asi anogona kutorerutsa kukanganisa kwerobhoti shanduko pabasa.

Iri bhuku rachangobva kutyora zvinyorwa zvepasi rose. "Second Machine Age" naErik Brynjolfsson naAndrew McAfi'govanonyora nezvekutyisidzirwa kuri kuwedzera kumabasa eunyanzvi hwakaderera. “Tekinoroji yagara ichiparadza mabasa, asi ndiyo yakaasika. Izvi zvave zvakadaro kwemakore mazana maviri apfuura, "Brynjolfsson akadaro mubvunzurudzo ichangopfuura. “Zvisinei, kubvira kumakore ekuma90, chiyero chevanhu vanoshanda kune vanhu vose chave chichidzikira nokukurumidza. Masangano ehurumende anofanirwa kukoshesa chiitiko ichi paanenge achiita mitemo yezvehupfumi.”

McAfee akataura mubvunzurudzo neWired muna Kukadzi gore rino kuti hazvisi zvakanyanya maonero emichina, kusimuka kweSkynet uye Terminator kunomunetsa, asi chiratidzo chekusimuka kwevanhu vari kurasikirwa nemabasa pamwero unotyisa. kuburikidza nemarobhoti uye otomatiki. Nyanzvi yezvehupfumi inokwevera kutarisisa kwete kubasa remuviri, asi kumusika wevashandi uri kukura kubva kuma80s. chinetso chokuderedza nhamba yevashandi vachena avo, kunyange mumamiriro ezvinhu eAmerica, vanoumba boka repakati. Uye kana pane basa rakadaro, saka kana muhoro wakanyanya kuderera, kana muhoro wakakwira zvakanyanya kupfuura avhareji.

Kana tikatarisa matekinoroji ari kugadzirwa iye zvino, rondedzero yemabasa achabviswa inogona kuva yakareba zvinoshamisa. Nokuti isu tinotarisira, somuenzaniso, kuti tyisidziro ichakanganisa here? Vagadziri vekamera yeTV? Zvichakadaro, kambani yeGermany KUKA iri kutoedza marobhoti asingazongotsivi vashandi, asiwo anonyora "zviri nani uye zvakanyanya kugadzikana". Motokari dzine makamera dziri kutoshandiswa paterevhizheni kune dzimwe nzvimbo.

Kune mabasa akadai sachiremba wemazino, mutambi, murairidzi, anodzima moto kana mupristi, zvichave zvakaoma kuwana chinotsiva robhoti. At least ndozvazvinoita so far. Nekudaro, izvi hazvina kubviswa zvachose mune ramangwana, sezvo michina kana masisitimu atogadzirwa ayo anozadzisa zvishoma mabasa avo. Vanoti mumafekitari emotokari, marobhoti haambofi akatsiva vanhu vane zvimwe zvinzvimbo. Zvichakadaro, vanogadzira marobhoti vakaita sekambani yeJapan Yaskawa, iyo yakambogadzira muchina wekuvaka zvivako kubva kuLego zvidhinha, vane maonero akasiyana panyaya iyi. Sezvazvakazoitika, iwe unogona kunyange automate zvinzvimbo mazinga ekutungamirira.

South Korea yedzidzo robhoti Engkey

Semuenzaniso, vashandi veDeep Knowledge vane robhoti rine hungwaru hwekugadzira semumwe wevakuru vavo. Nhengo yeSupervisory Board nekuti pane imwe Vital (od) - kana kuti, software yakagadzirirwa kuongorora mafambiro ekushambadzira zvichienderana nedata rakapihwa. Kusiyana nevanhu, hungwaru hwekugadzira hahuna manzwiro uye intuition uye hunovimba chete nedata rakapihwa, kuverenga mukana wemamwe mamiriro (uye bhizinesi mhedzisiro).

Vemari? Kubva kuma80s, mabasa evatengesi nemabroker akatorwa neakaomesesa algorithms ayo anoshanda zvakanyanya kupfuura vanhu pakubata kusiyana kwemitengo yemasheya uye kuita mari kubva mazviri.

Magweta? Kuregererei? Kambani yemagweta yekuUnited States yeBakerHostetler ndiyo yekutanga pasi rose kuhaya gweta reAI-powered robhoti gore rapfuura. Muchina unonzi Ross, wakagadzirwa neIBM, unobata nekubhuroka kwemakambani maawa makumi maviri nemana pazuva - waimbova nemagweta anosvika makumi mashanu anoshanda pauri.

vadzidzisi? MuSouth Korea, uko vadzidzisi veChirungu vakaoma kuwana, marobhoti ekutanga ekudzidzisa ari kudzidzisa mutauro weShakespeare. Chirongwa chekuedza chirongwa ichi chakaunzwa muzvikoro zvepuraimari. Muna 2013, michina yekudzidza mutauro wekunze yeEngkey yakavepo muzvikoro uye kunyangwe kukireshi, ichidzorwa kure nevadzidzisi veChirungu vanobva kune dzimwe nyika.

Additive Industries uye Kushaikwa Kwemabasa Munyika Yetatu

Maererano neInternational Federation of Robotics (IFR), yakatengeswa pasi rose muna 2013. 179 zviuru zvemaindasitiri marobhoti.

Sezvineiwo, shanduko yemaindasitiri otomatiki, yakasanganiswa nekuvandudzwa kwe 3D kudhinda uye ekuwedzera matekinoroji (ane hukama ne 3D kudhinda uye mabviro ayo), inogona kutungamira mukurasikirwa nemabasa kunyangwe mune dzinonzi nyika. nyika yechitatu ine basa rakachipa. Ikoko ndiko kwavakasona, semuenzaniso, shangu dzemitambo dzemakambani anozivikanwa enyika. Iye zvino, semuenzaniso, shangu dzeNike Flyknit dzinogadzirwa otomatiki, kubva kuzvikamu zvakadhindwa zve 3D, izvo zvinobva zvasonewa neshinda dzine mavara mazhinji mumarobhoti looms, inoyeuchidza mashopu ekare ekuruka - asi pasina vanhu. Neyo otomatiki yakadaro, kuswedera kwechirimwa kune mutengi kunotanga kuverengerwa kuderedza mari yekutumira. Hazvishamisi kuti German Adidas inogadzira mhando dzayo dzePrimeknit, zvichibva patekinoroji yakafanana neshangu dzeNike dzambotaurwa, munyika yavo, uye kwete kumwe kuCentral Asia. Kungotora mabasa kubva kuAsia manufactories hakukupe iwe akawandisa mabasa muGermany. Fekitori yemarobhoti haidi vashandi vakawanda.

Shanduko muchimiro chekushanda kwevanhu uye marobhoti muna 2009-2013.

Kambani yeAnalyst Boston Consulting Group yakazivisa muna 2012 kuti, nekuda kwe otomatiki, tekinoroji tekinoroji, uye kufambira mberi mukugadzirwa kwekuwedzera, panosvika 30 2020% yezvinotengeswa kubva kuUS kubva kuChina zvinogona kuitwa muUS. Chiratidzo chenguva iyo kambani yeJapan Mori Seiki inovhura fekitori yemidziyo yemotokari uye inounganidza muCalifornia. Zvisinei, kune, hongu, hapana vashandi. Machina anogadzira michina, uye zviri pachena kuti hautombodi kubatidza mwenje mufekitari iyi.

Pamwe hakusi kupera kwebasa zvachose, asi zvinoita sekunge kupera kwebasa kune vanhu vakawanda. Kufanotaura kwakawanda kwakadaro kungangove kwakajeka. Nyanzvi dziri kutanga kutaura nezwi rimwe - chikamu chikuru chemusika wevashandi chichanyangarika mumakumi emakore anotevera. Rimwe divi rekufanotaura uku mhedzisiro yemagariro. Dzakanyanya kuoma kufungidzira. Vanhu vazhinji vachiri kufunga kuti kudzidza zvemutemo kana kubhengi tikiti rakanaka rekuenda kubasa rakanaka uye hupenyu hwakanaka. Hapana anovaudza kuti vafunge zvakare.

Kugadzirwa kweshangu dzeNike Flyknit

Maonero asina tariro emusika wevashandi, uyo ari kutsiviwa zvishoma nezvishoma nemarobhoti, zvirinani munyika dzakabudirira, hazvireve hazvo kuderera kwemararamiro uye kushayiwa. Kana paine zvishoma uye zvishoma - kuitsiva, anofanira kubhadhara mutero. Zvichida kwete robhoti, asi zvirokwazvo iyo kambani inoishandisa. Vanhu vazhinji vanofunga nenzira iyi, semuenzaniso, Bill Gates, muvambi weMicrosoft.

Izvi zvaizobvumira vose vakatorerwa basa nemichina kuti vararame pamwero wakanaka - i.e. tenga izvo marobhoti anovashandira anoburitsa.