Kubudirira kunotungamirirwa nekutsvakurudza. Kupfeka injini
Tsvakurudzo "Zvakaoma here kuwana mazano?" ("Zviri kuwedzera kuoma kuwana?"), Yakabudiswa munaSeptember 2017, uyezve, mune imwe shanduro yakawedzerwa, muna March wegore rino. Vanyori, vana vezvehupfumi vanozivikanwa, vanoratidza mariri kuti kuedza kwekutsvakurudza kunoramba kuchiwedzera kunounza zvishoma uye zvishoma zvikomborero zvehupfumi.
John Van Reenen weMassachusetts Institute of Technology naNicholas Bloom, Charles I. Jones naMichael Webb veStanford University vanonyora kuti:
"Huwandu hwedata kubva kune akasiyana siyana maindasitiri, zvigadzirwa nemakambani zvinoratidza kuti mari yekutsvagisa iri kuwedzera zvakanyanya asi tsvakiridzo pachayo iri kukurumidza kuderera."
Vanopa muenzaniso Mutemo waMooretichiona kuti "nhamba yevaongorori ikozvino inodiwa kuti iwane yakakurumbira yakapetwa kaviri yekombuta density makore maviri ega ega inodarika kagumi nesere zvaidiwa mukutanga 70s." Maitiro akafanana anocherechedzwa nevanyori mumapepa esainzi ane chekuita nezvekurima nemishonga. Kuwedzera kutsvagisa nezvegomarara uye zvimwe zvirwere hazvitungamiri kune hupenyu hwakawanda hwakaponeswa, asi zvakapesana - hukama pakati pekuwedzera kwemitengo uye kuwedzera mhedzisiro kuri kuita kushoma uye kushoma. Somuenzaniso, kubvira muna 1950, nhamba yemishonga yakabvumirwa neUnited States Food and Drug Administration (FDA) pabhirioni yemadhora inoshandiswa pakutsvakurudza yakaderera zvikuru.
Maonero erudzi urwu haasi matsva munyika dzekuMadokero. Kare muna 2009 Benjamin Jones mubasa rake pamusoro pekuomerwa kuri kukura kwekutsvaga hutsva, akataura kuti vaizova vagadziri mune imwe nzvimbo yakapihwa zvino vava kuda dzidzo nehunyanzvi kupfuura kare kuti vave nehunyanzvi hwakakwana hwekungosvika miganhu yavaizokwanisa kuyambuka. Huwandu hwezvikwata zvesainzi huri kuramba huchikura, uye panguva imwecheteyo, nhamba yematendi pasainzi iri kuderera.
Nyanzvi dzezvehupfumi dzinonyanya kufarira izvo zvinodaidzwa kuti mashandisirwo esainzi, ndiko kuti, mabasa ekutsvagisa anobatsira mukukura kwehupfumi nebudiriro, pamwe nekuvandudza hutano nemararamiro. Vanoshoropodzwa nekuda kweizvi, nokuti, maererano nenyanzvi dzakawanda, sainzi haigoni kuderedzwa kusvika pakunzwisisa kwakamanikana, kwekushandisa. Iyo Big Bang dzidziso kana kuwanikwa kweHiggs boson hakuwedzere gross chigadzirwa, asi kunodzamisa kunzwisisa kwedu kwenyika. Handizvo here zviri kurehwa nesainzi?
Kutsvagisa peji rekutanga naStanford uye MIT economists
Fusion, i.e. takatoti mhoroi hanzi
Zvakadaro, zvakaoma kupikisa zviyerero zvenhamba zviri nyore zvinounzwa nenyanzvi dzezvehupfumi. Vamwe vane mhinduro iyo hupfumi dzingangofungawo zvakakomba. Maererano nevakawanda, sayenzi iye zvino yakagadzirisa zvinetso zviri nyore uye iri kufambira mberi kune dzimwe dzakaoma kunzwisisa, dzakadai sezvinetso zvomuviri wepfungwa kana kuti mubatanidzwa wefizikisi.
Pane mibvunzo yakaoma apa.
Inguvai, kana zvamboitika, patichasarudza kuti zvimwe zvezvibereko zvatiri kuedza kuwana hazvikwanisiki?
Kana kuti, sokutaura kunoita nyanzvi yezveupfumi, takagadzirira kushandisa yakawanda sei mukugadzirisa zvinetso zvakaratidza kuti zvakaoma zvikuru kugadzirisa?
Ndirini, kana zvakamboitika, tinofanira kutanga kucheka kurasikirwa nekumisa tsvagiridzo?
Muenzaniso wokutarisana nenyaya yakaoma zvikuru iyo pakutanga yairatidzika kuva yakapfava inhau yemhaka. kukura kwe thermonuclear fusion. Kuwanikwa kwemusanganiswa wenyukireya muma30 uye kugadzirwa kwezvombo zvethermonuclear kuma50 kwakaita kuti nyanzvi dzefizikisi dzitarisire kuti kusanganiswa kwaigona kukurumidza kushandiswa kugadzira simba. Nekudaro, anopfuura makore makumi manomwe gare gare, isu hatina kufambira mberi zvakanyanya munzira iyi, uye kunyangwe zvipikirwa zvakawanda zvesimba rerunyararo uye rinodzorwa kubva mukusanganiswa muziso reziso redu, izvi handizvo.
Kana sainzi iri kusunda tsvakiridzo kusvika pasisina imwe nzira yekuenderera mberi kunze kweimwe hombe yemari inobuda, saka pamwe ndiyo nguva yekumira uye kufunga kuti zvakakodzera here. Zvinoita sekuti mafizikisi akavaka kuisirwa kwechipiri kwakasimba ari kusvika pane iyi mamiriro. Huru Hadron Collider uye kusvika zvino zvishoma zvasvika pazviri ... Hapana migumisiro yekutsigira kana kupikisa dzidziso huru. Pane mazano ekuti inotowedzera accelerator inodiwa. Zvisinei, havasi vose vanofunga kuti iyi ndiyo nzira yekuenda nayo.
Golden Age yeInnovation - Kuvaka Brooklyn Bridge
Murevi wenhema
Zvakare, sezvakataurwa mubasa resainzi rakaburitswa muna Chivabvu 2018 naProf. David Woolpert kubva kuSanta Fe Institute unogona kuratidza kuti varipo miganhu inokosha yeruzivo rwesainzi.
Uhu humbowo hunotanga nekugadzirwa kwemasvomhu kwokuti “mudziyo wokubuda nawo”—tingati, musayendisiti ane kombiyuta huru, midziyo mikuru yokuedza, zvichingodaro—angawana ruzivo rwesayenzi nezvemamiriro ezvinhu echisiko chapose pose chakamupoteredza. Pane musimboti wemasvomhu unoganhurira zivo yesayenzi inogona kuwanwa nokucherechedza chisiko chapose pose, kuchishandisa, kufanotaura zvichazoitika, kana kuti kuita mhedziso pamusoro pezvakaitika munguva yakapfuura. Kureva, mudziyo wekuburitsa uye ruzivo rwainowana, subsystems yeimwe nyika. Kubatana uku kunoganhurira kushanda kwechigadzirwa. Wolpert anoratidza kuti pachagara paine chimwe chinhu chaasingakwanise kufanotaura, chimwe chinhu chaasingayeuke uye chaasingakwanise kuona.
"Nenzira yakati, kurongeka uku kunogona kuonekwa sekuwedzera kwezvakataurwa naDonald McKay kuti kufanotaura kwemunyori weramangwana hakugone kuzvidavirira pakudzidza kwemunyori wekufanotaura ikoko," Woolpert anotsanangura pa phys.org.
Ko kana isu tisingade chinobuda mudziyo kuziva zvese nezvechadenga chayo, asi pachinzvimbo ichida kuti izive zvakanyanya sezvinobvira nezve izvo zvinogona kuzivikanwa? Chimiro chesvomhu chaVolpert chinoratidza kuti midziyo miviri yekufungidzira ine zvese zvekuzvisarudzira (zvakanyatsotsanangurwa) uye ruzivo rwakanyanya rwezvakasikwa hazvigone kugarisana mune icho chadenga. Panogona kana kusave ne "super-reference zvishandiso" akadaro, asi kwete kupfuura imwe. Wolpert anodana mhedzisiro iyi achiseka kuti "misimboti yekutenda Mwari mumwe" nekuti kunyangwe isingarambidze kuvepo kwehumwari munzvimbo yedu, inorambidza kuvapo kwevanopfuura mumwechete.
Wolpert anoenzanisa nharo dzake ne choko vanhu gangaidzoumo Epimenides weKnossos, muKrete, anotaura kutaura kwakakurumbira: "Vose vaKrete varevi venhema." Nekudaro, kusiyana nekutaura kwaEpimenides, uko kunofumura dambudziko remasisitimu ane kugona kuzvinongedza, kufunga kwaVolpert kunoshandawo kumidziyo yekufungidzira inoshaya kugona uku.
Tsvagiridzo yakaitwa naVolpert nechikwata chake inoitwa munzira dzakasiyana siyana, kubva pakuziva pfungwa kuenda kudzidziso yeTuring michina. Masayendisiti eSanta Fe ari kuyedza kugadzira iyo yakasiyana-siyana probabilistic framework iyo inovabvumira kuti vadzidze kwete chete miganho yeruzivo rwakakwana, asiwo zvinoitika kana zvigadziriso zvisingafanirwe kushanda neXNUMX% chokwadi.
David Wolpert weSanta Fe Institute
Hazvina kufanana nemakore zana apfuura
Mafungiro aVolpert, akavakirwa pakuongorora kwemasvomhu uye zvine musoro, anotiudza chimwe chinhu nezvehupfumi hwesainzi. Vanoratidza kuti mabasa ari kure kwazvo esainzi yemazuva ano - matambudziko ezve cosmological, mibvunzo nezve kwakabva uye hunhu hwepasirese - haifanirwe kunge iri nzvimbo yemubhadharo mukuru wemari. Hazvina chokwadi kuti mhinduro dzinogutsa dzichawanikwa. Zvakanakisa, isu tichadzidza zvinhu zvitsva, izvo zvinongowedzera huwandu hwemibvunzo, nekudaro kuwedzera nzvimbo yekusaziva. Ichi chiitiko chinonyatsozivikanwa kune vefizikisi.
Nekudaro, sekuratidzwa kwe data rakamboratidzwa, kutarisisa kune yakashandiswa sainzi uye inoshanda mhedzisiro yeruzivo rwakawanikwa iri kuramba ichiderera. Zvinoita sekunge mafuta ari kupera, kana injini yesainzi yasakara kubva mukuchembera, izvo chete mazana maviri kana zana emakore apfuura zvakakurudzira kuvandudza tekinoroji, kugadzirwa, kuenzanisa, kugadzira, uye pakupedzisira, iyo yose. hupfumi, hunotungamirira kukuwedzera kwehutano uye hupenyu hwehupenyu hwevanhu.
Chiripo hachisi chekumonera maoko ako uye kubvarura zvipfeko zvako pamusoro payo. Nekudaro, zvakakosha kufunga kuti inguva yekuvandudza kukuru kana kutsiva injini iyi.
